Galaxy FCT - Solid H2 Logistics
The Case for Solid H2 Logistics

The recent Carbon Tracker Initiative Report (2021) projects that we can produce 100 times global energy demand using just Solar PV and Wind (utilizing current technology).  Paradoxically, despite its humungous potential, Solar and Wind as at 2019, generates less than 9% of global energy demand. This stark dichotomy highlights two contrasting realities:

  • We have made incredible progress in GENERATION;
  • Our ability to STORE and MOVE clean energy is nowhere near "good enough".

With this backdrop, let's take a deeper dive into the case for Solid H2 Logistics - An Idea Whose Time has Come.






Two Technical GAPs
Gap No1.  
Infrastructure LIGHT Solutions
Most Climate Solutions require massive logistic infrastructure deployments.  While these could be viable in certain rich corridors with huge user concentration, they will not work in poorer nations that cannot afford those solutions and in areas that do not have the requisite user volume or density.  The world desperately needs "infrastructure-LIGHT" solutions that are scalable globally. Solid H2 Logistics potentially evolve to fill this massive GAP.

The battle to avert climate disaster will be won or lost mainly in the Global South where the bulk of the world's population lives.  The Global North which has gotten rich after emitting most of the carbon in the atmosphere today over the past 150 years or so could probably afford infrastructure intensive solutions that the Global South are not able to.  Today, as most countries in the Global South are just beginning to pull themselves out from poverty (and in the process, increasing their carbon footprint), it is very difficult to imagine how any leader could decide to divert the necessary resources towards these expensive infrastructure intensive climate solutions, probably destroying  whatever economic progress the country has made in the past decades.  Such a leader would very quickly be out of a job.

As Bill Gates wrote in Gates Notes (Aug 2020), all the climate solutions we have today are too expensive.  We not only need solutions that the poorer nations would want, but also solutions that they can afford.  He also noted that for the pandemic, GAVI is there to provide vaccines which are affordable, but lamented that there is no "GAVI for Climate Change".
Gap No 2. 
Clean Long-Term Energy Storage
Batteries have come a long way and will be able to handle "time shifting" of intermittent renewable energy to bridge the daily gaps between timing of generation and the timing of consumption.  But batteries do not handle long term or seasonal storage well.  Given the cost structure of batteries (high upfront investment, low marginal cost per use cycle), any battery which is used only occasionally (e.g., several times a year) would be nothing short of an economic disaster.  Solid H2 fills this gap by going "beyond batteries" to provide green energy molecules that can be stored for long periods, easily and efficiently.
Two Implementation Bottlenecks
Bottleneck No 1. 
NIMBYS, Land Rights & 
Lawyers ("NLL")
NIMBYs land rights and lawyers often produce “BANANAs” (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone). This is a deadly cocktail which infects probably 80% to 90% of the world (most democratic countries with private land rights). Most solar PV project developers will know that negotiating the offtake, getting permits and sorting out the transmission and interconnection is by far the most difficult and time-consuming portion of the project. Deploying the panels is probably the easiest of them all, by a large margin. 

Solid H2 Logistics allows developer an option to focus resources on what they can execute rapidly (and things largely within their sphere of influence) and minimize the vagaries of having to deal with too much NLL elements in their project. Before getting stuck in assuming that all that trouble is “Necessary”, we should always consider the alternatives that SH2L can provide. With SH2L getting more economical by the day (as scale increases over time and renewable generation prices trend lower), there will increasingly be many more circumstances where SH2L may be holistically a better solution.  
Bottleneck No 2. 
 Geopolitics Polarization and 
Populism ("GPP")
Populist politics is on the rise globally and geopolitics is getting infinitely more complex due to an increasingly “multipolar” world. Inequality is greater than it has ever been, and polarization is at n all time high. In short, this is not an environment which is conducive for massive, complex cross-border infrastructure projects which are highly interdependent collaboration between nations. 

The key take away is not so much whether a particular project should be carried out or not. The point is this – we need to fully recognize the difficulty, complexity, and the magnitude of these challenges before committing huge chunks of capital for these types of projects. Many project sponsors often promote the narrative that the infrastructure that they promote is necessary and there is no other real viable option. With Solid H2 Logistics – you will always have an option. We need to choose wisely – pick the right battles so that we can win the war on Climate Change. 
Two Exponential Dimensions

Exponential Dimension 1: Accelerating A VIRTUOUS CYCLE for Renewables 


Solid H2 Applications expected to increase exponentially with decrease in production costs …
The starting point to kick-off SH2L is with unprecedentedly large-scale renewable energy generation in the highest yielding locations on the planet (the “Prime Sites”). Transmission is not required as the entire production is dedicated to NaBH4 production and the end product is shipped to end users wherever they are globally. 

Massive adoption of Prime Site Production will also ignite a virtuous cycle in all associated renewables (Solar PV, Wind Turbines, Electrolyzers, Batteries, Fuel Cells, and all associated Supply Chain Components). As the size of such projects are not constrained by transmission and offtakes, they can be extremely large, and execution can be almost immediate (very little NLL & GPP issues to deal with). This will create a sustained surge in demand for all associated renewables, accelerating cost reductions all round through their respective “learning rates” (Wrights Law at work), ultimately resulting in lower production costs for NaBH4. Lower NaBH4 prices will in turn trigger even more Prime Site integrated projects, kicking off another cycle of cost reduction all round.  And the Cycle continues. 


Exponential Dimension 2: Perfect Fit with the Net Zero Grid ("NZG") 

The unique strengths of Solid H2 Logistics are precisely the areas in which the Electricity Grid is weak
The Net Zero Grid is the most potent weapon that mankind has against Climate Change. However, as the percentage of variable generation in each grid goes up beyond a certain level, the true incremental costs of each additional kWh will start to increase exponentially. 

There is little sense in duplicating the electricity grid with another parallel intensive logistic network at great cost just to serve the same areas (typically, in the rich world) when the battle for climate change will be won or lost in what happens in the developing world
If we look at the biggest weaknesses of the electricity grid, we will realize that they match quite nicely with the most unique strengths of SH2L. Consider the following: 

(a) Dealing with Intermittent Supply; 
(b) Providing “on demand” Clean Long Term/Seasonal Energy Storage; 
(c) No Need for much Fixed Infrastructure; 
(d) Dealing with Extreme Weather Events; 
(e) Providing Resiliency and Reliability to the Net Zero Grid and dealing with Emergencies. 

These are all areas which SH2L excels. Once we get prices down to reasonable levels, the SH2L Ecosystem will be able to seamlessly complement pretty much all the “shortcomings” of the clean electricity grid. 

Critical "Big Picture" Issues

There are several "Big Picture" issues which need to be adequately addressed if we are to be successful in dealing with the challenges posed by the Climate Crisis.  These are extremely difficult and complex issues for which adequate solutions are far from obvious. We are not suggesting that Solid H2 is a silver bullet which can resolve such difficult issues.  What Solid H2 can do, is to provide another potential solution or framework which can help us find the answers that we need.  

Let's dive right in. 


"Big Picture "Issue 1:  Timing is Everything

Be extremely cautious with huge  multi- year infrastructure-intensive projects … they deliver too little when it matters, and its usually too late when they deliver.
The next 10 years are critical "make or break" years where we need massive decarbonization if we are to succeed in navigating the Climate Crisis.  Massive complex infrastructure intensive projects tend to take years to conceive and to implement, but they promise huge benefits far into the future.  They tend to be justified using an attractive "Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) but if we put them through the "climate calculus", they tend to do very badly.

Huge benefits projected in the distant future has relatively little value when the most critical period in which we need massive decarbonization is right in front of us.  The LCOE which does not distinguish that, clearly misses the point.  Not only do such projects offer very little benefit during this critical period, the huge carbon footprint that it causes may also help trigger irreversible tipping points which we need to avoid.


We must be extremely vigilant and judicious when evaluating such projects and only commit to such projects after properly considering the  timing and extent of their impact during this extremely critical period.
Tactical Sequencing of Climate Solutions may be Needed

SH2L provides the option for us to focus immediately on projects that have high upfront impact on global decarbonization as opposed to massive back ended projects that misses the point on timing.  In fact, we should be more tactical in the way we sequence our climate solutions optimally.  Perhaps we should consider the following possibility:

-  Allocate heavy investment in Prime Site Integrated Production to bring cost of NaBH4 down substantially together with the cost of all associated renewables in exceptionally large scale.

-  Solid H2 can be used to power mining industry so that the additional demand for critical minerals will not result in extreme emissions.

-  Lowered price of renewable energy and H2 can increasingly be used to produce Green Cement, Green Aluminum and Green Steel.

-  Adding massive quantities of fixed infrastructures for the Net Zero Grid can be stepped up again after we have sufficient stock of Green H2, Cement, Aluminum and Steel.

Being tactically astute in sequencing out responses could make huge differences in the overall effectiveness of our climate measures and could well be the difference between a "hothouse earth" and a better tomorrow.


"Big Picture "Issue 2:  Collaboration between Nations

Collaboration between Nations is inherently an extremely difficult and complex issue. 





























Adopting Solid H2 Logistics can create an ecosystem which generates enormous value which can be shared between collaborating nations and avoid (as much as possible) the complexity of having rich countries fund massive infrastructure investments in the Global South.  



















This is truly the "Elephant in the Room" which have been overlooked for far too long.  Mankind may well fail the Climate Test due to "lack of collaboration" rather than the "lack of technology solution".  The issues are difficult, complex and sensitive and there are no easy solutions in sight.  Solid H2 Logistics is not a silver bullet, but it does provide and ecosystem and framework which mitigates some of the key impediments and creates conditions which support alignment of tangible economic interests with multilateral collaboration.

Consider the following:

Inclusivity: There can be no true collaboration without inclusivity. A heavily infrastructure-intensive solution is inherently and structurally non-inclusive because they can only be deployed in corridors which can afford it and have the density to justify it.  Others will be disenfranchised.  Conversely, Solid H2 (once production costs are adequately addressed) can be distributed to all locations without reliance on much infrastructure.  Its structurally designed to be as inclusive as it can get.

Aligning Tangible Economic Benefits with Collaboration: Perhaps we could get various nations to pool their financial resources under a multilateral collaborative framework (e.g., United Nations) to designate several giant Prime Sites for dedicated NaBh4 production.  The Solid H2 produced will be allocated and shipped back to the participating countries based on their “equity share” (which can be adjusted by agreement to consider various relevant considerations).  Utilizing the best locations on the planet will provide most efficient use of capex, unprecedented scale will lower production costs and the development under the aegis of a Multilateral Treaty (or UN) will lower financing costs due to lowered political risk. 



If we could get nations to collaborate in the manner above, we would be able to drive the production cost of Solid H2 much lower and much faster.  And each participating nation will be able to see the tangible economic benefits arising from this collaboration which is over and above the more altruistic notion that “we are doing it for the common good of mankind”.  More importantly, as this collaboration continues, the benefits will keep increasing over time with greater scale and the virtuous cycle.  This will reinforce the idea of long-term collaboration amongst nations.